All models are wrong, but some are useful

This quote comes from the late statistician George Box. Box meant that all models are imperfect representations of reality because the factors are, by definition, simplified. However, simplified factors can still be valuable for providing insight and understanding in predicting real-world phenomena. Here at Technology Cycles Org, we seek to remedy that. Scroll on …

Understanding the cycles are critical

Understanding technology innovation cycles has become increasingly critical. Innovation cycles coherently explain why industrialized nations have become mired in low growth these days. And even this low growth is, for the most part, due to deficit spending. The economic impact on the middle class could not be more acute, as most are working for wages that are anything but living wages. This has naturally given rise to anger and populism.

Why? Click the textbox below to get the context and condensed explanation of how technology cycles have been the major driver of the world’s evolution since the onset of the Industrial Revolution.

Learn why technology cycles are crucial to understand

some technology cycle basics

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The Four Macroeconomic Models

Neither evolutionary economics nor technological cycles is yet mainstream economic canon. Many believe that understanding core innovation cycles delivers more insight and understanding than all the macroeconomic models combined. Utilizing technology-cycle models as the baseline could provide tremendous insights and breakthroughs in the rising field of evolutionary economics.

The four macro economic schools

Technology Cycles.Org Mission

Technology cycles (aka long waves or Kondratievs) have gone “Hollywood.” This means the mountain of misinformation is growing. The primary mission of this site is to provide a clear history of the models while dispelling the myths that have grown up around them. This information could not be more relevant for those seeking solutions to current problems. Finally, it is provided as a spark for new thinking.

Main Page for the Technology Cycles Section

Technology Cycle Section Highlights

Relevance

History

The Long Depression

Depressions

Biographies

A 5th cycle career

To Know More

AI Today & AI Modeling Tomorrow

Today, AI is being credited with both positive and negative outcomes. The reality is that AI is still in its infancy. As AI matures, the ability to train it to model the technology cycles will become increasingly feasible. At Technology Cycles.Org, the issue is not whether or not AI can replicate human sentience. Instead, imagine AI models that in the future will replicate the factors required to project technology cycle growth rates and contractions accurately.

AI technology cycles that will simulate complex economies. No more having to perform brain surgery in real-time on the economy. Instead, computers can help guide us through the economic transitions of the technology cycles. Article coming in the future.

You are invited to review the requirements for training AI for these extremely large economic models.

AI Visual Lexicon

Today, AI can chat easily via advanced speech pattern recognition. Soon, AI will be able to understand images, as it has shown it can with unstructured data, like words. The AI (GPT) models have come a long way rapidly. The problem is that AI will not be able to learn large-scale modeling using the same approach used to train AI today.

This section will house a proposed lexicon to assist AI in constructing immense models. Technology cycle models will require models of the size that physicists utilize to model the universe. The basis of this lexicon will show how technology cycles invented modernism.

Read about how technology cycles invented modernism here

Technology Cycles Experiment History

Examining the impact of technology cycles visually by reviewing the very early experiments.
The clarity of these visualization studies can make the point pretty clearly.

Began 1980s

technology cycles 1980s visual experiments

De-industrialization

See early studies

Codex Studies

Tech impact on art

The Codex studies

Post-Mod Prayers

Technology cycles postmodern prayer series

Tech impact on music

Eyewitness series