This quote comes from the late statistician George Box. Box meant that all models are imperfect representations of reality because the factors are, by definition, simplified. However, simplified factors can still be valuable for providing insight and understanding in predicting real-world phenomena. Here at Technology Cycles Org, we seek to remedy that. Scroll on …

What makes Perez’s model revolutionary is its recognition that technological change is not random or chaotic, but follows a disciplined rhythm spanning 50-60 years per complete cycle. Each revolution moves through two distinct periods—Installation and Deployment—separated by a critical turning point that often appears catastrophic to those experiencing it. This pattern has held constant across five major technological revolutions, suggesting fundamental laws governing how societies absorb and benefit from transformative technologies.

The model’s power lies in its ability to explain why technological progress feels so turbulent and why the most promising innovations often precede periods of economic and social upheaval. By understanding these patterns, we can better navigate our current technological moment and anticipate the institutional changes required to unlock widespread prosperity.