What is the purpose of these pages in the Great Surges of this innovation information repository?

Since the election of the 47th US president, equity markets have descended into turmoil. The profound economic forces unleashed by the US has led to a run-up in a global tariff war. As shocking as this course of events is, the need for understanding technology cycles explains where this all is headed in the future. Read – Understanding why technology cycles is more pertinent than ever for an explanation.

Innovation cycles have gone completely “Hollywood.” There is now a metric ton of misinformation floating around the Internet which might have been well intentioned but is inaccurate. The development of technology is a topic gaining allot of interest. For these reasons the section on the Great Surges are here. In the first section you can find the history of how the models and theory came into existence. How the misunderstandings crept into the modeling and where. Then how Carlota Perez brilliant model has made for an incalculably valuable contribution. A link to a short history of the Great Innovation Surges.

One of the sharpest minds who brought both academic quality in research as well as significant insights into these cycles was Nikolai Kondratiev. His biography offers insights into who he really was and how these models function. Link to a summarized biography of Kondratiev’s tragic life. 

Kondratiev’s impact on the modern world stems both from his model as well as the downstream economists he influenced. A link to his thinking and the economists influenced. 

At the center of every Great Technology Surge are worldwide depressions. They are pretty easy to spot and therefore knowing what time it is within the Great Surges can be very useful. But there is another aspect of the worldwide depressions and that is the revolts, revolutions, and wars which are spawned in response to the cataclysmic depressions. A link to the five worldwide depressions and the resulting revolutions. 

The Long Depression in the US (1873-1896) was called the Great Depression til the larger depression of the 1930s landed. The Long Depression was so long because the US was effectively managing the markets by the “robber barons” of the late 19th century. The markets become too large in the 20th century for the JP Morgans and the other gilded age wealthy to backup the markets financially. The Long Depression was so up and down and ran so terribly long because the markets were not effectively managed outside of the government. A link to the classic tale of crash.

Karl Marx and Friedrich Engels lived through the second worldwide depression in 1848. They attempted to put together a political philosophy which would curtail the depressions. Economics in general was not well understood and they made some major errors in their logic. Most people don’t understand why they created their theory and what is structurally wrong with their philosophy. A link is provided to “Marx’s Mistake.”

As of this writing I am still working at IBM. The link explains how I used Carlota Perez’s innovation cycles model of the Great Surges as an offerings strategist and as an offering manager for over two plus decades at IBM. Great Surges and my Career at IBM.